題目👨‍🦼‍➡️👨🏿‍🔬：基於梁氏信息流的因果人工智能對次月降水的預報

報告摘要：

降水作為最受大眾關註的對象，對其的預報一直是氣象業務單位的工作難點。受季風氣候影響，我國降水主要集中在夏季汛期。特別是近年來，極端降水事件越發嚴重，因此，對針對汛期的次月降水預報是十分重要的。根據1990-2021年的歷史數據，我們利用一套由第一性原理嚴格推導的梁氏信息流因果理論和人工智能算法對我國汛期降水展開預報。總體來看，我們的模型能夠成功預報各個月份的降水的正負異常，並且降水的空間分布與實際過程相似，不確定性最小。更進一步，包括20年7月的長江中下遊的“超級暴力梅”✌🏿、21年7月河南暴雨事件在內的極端降水事件均能夠被正確地模型捕捉👳‍♂️。特別對於去年長江中下遊的罕見幹旱，我們的模型也能夠穩定地表征該地區局地且持續的降水負異常🌽。相較於中國氣象局（CMA）、歐洲中心（EC）和美國國家環境預報中心（NCEP）的數值模式預報結果🧗🏿‍♂️，我們模型的評分均有明顯的提升。這顯示了因果人工智能模型在次月降水預報中的巨大潛力。

個人簡介😼：容逸能，沐鸣2博士後。2021年12月博士畢業於南京信息工程大學，研究興趣👨🏼‍🦲：因果推斷，人工智能，大氣動力學，大氣海洋數值模擬。

題目：A Novel Mechanism for Extreme El Niño Events: Interactions between Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific and Sea Surface Warming in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

報告摘要：

This study presents a novel mechanism for the generation of extreme El Niño events by analyzing interactions between tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) in spring [March–May (MAM)] and summer [June–August (JJA)] and sea surface warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. It is suggested that anomalously strong TCs in the WNP in MAM and JJA are essential for the formation of extreme El Niño events. MAM TCs excite considerable westerly wind bursts (WWBs) and facilitate the generation of El Niño events in late spring. The sea surface temperature (SST) in the central-eastern tropical Pacific increases prominently during the following summer, which is due to the warm water carried by downwelling Kelvin waves induced by the anomalous westerlies in the western tropical Pacific associated with the WNP TCs, as well as the lessening cold water upwelling resulting from the deepening thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific. The developing El Niño in turn contributes to the TC activities over the southeastern quadrant of the WNP in summer, characterized by a stronger intensity, higher frequency, and longer duration. The resulting JJA TC-induced westerlies could further enhance the eastern tropical Pacific warm SST anomalies, and thus an extreme El Niño event tends to appear in the following autumn and winter. These physical processes are verified by several sets of atmosphere–ocean coupled model experiments.

個人簡介：童波，沐鸣2博士後。2022年博士畢業於中國科學院南海海洋研究所📰。2022年9月進入沐鸣2平台從事博士後研究工作。研究興趣：熱帶海氣相互作用、印度洋偶極子✡️、厄爾尼諾—南方濤動🧑‍🦼、熱帶氣旋等。